"We're going to get a lot more cases if there's community spread from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers."
"This is the natural history of how viral flare-ups and burnouts occur."
"The study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified."
"Why were these patients asymptomatic? Were there symptomatic patients, or was the coronavirus less aggressive in the early days?"
"The true number of Italians who had been in contact with the virus would be approximately 1.5 million, many of whom were asymptomatic."
"Low back pain was the leading cause of years lived with disability in the United States."
"Increased relative humidity was associated with decreased cases in both epidemic phases."
"We need answers as fast as possible from the epidemiologists. Let's listen to the experts, guys, and experts, do better."
"If you have a virus that is more transmissible, you're going to get more cases. When you get more cases, you're going to get more hospitalizations, and when you get more hospitalizations, you're ultimately going to get more deaths."
"We are literally driving blind as if we have no headlights at night because testing is the cornerstone of stopping an outbreak." - Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, Epidemiologist
"America is now conducting close to 350,000 tests per day."
"When you know the origin of the virus, you may know... how to handle it much better."
"We do continue to see an increased number in cases again as we said we would as time passes."
"There's a natural selection that occurs, the most severe strains are eliminating themselves by killing people, the less severe variants are more likely to transmit because the people are less likely to be hospitalized."
"The bend doesn't happen naturally. The bend happens when people change their behavioral and actually reduce the transmission rate."
"The link between new cases and deaths is being broken by vaccines."
"Public behavior better, death rate cases and death rate down."
"Even though we had the highest number of cases, per capita we're number 34."
"It's important to keep the R number below 1, and an effective track and trace system is a crucial component to achieve this."
"As long as the R number is below one... over time you will see reductions in the number of infection in the community."
"The number one question: What is the infection fatality rate of this disease based on age and pre-existing health condition?"
"The crux of the smallpox scenario is that you are going to start off with a lot of severity and lethality."
"Did these protests have anything to do with the virus outbreaks and will this lead to a virus outbreak?"
"A tiny reduction in the spread rate per day is the difference between ending up with a few thousand infected or a few million."
"What the (beep) are you talking about? Epidemiologists have been warning us about the continued threat posed by variants for months."
"The Blood Plague was a spontaneous event that would have been impossible to imagine before it actually happened."
"They were saying things like clustered cases means that human-to-human transmission is possible."
"Most of the population or the vast majority will catch the disease for a large value of Q."
"Every epidemic is an opportunity to find the kinds of patterns that can help us determine the factors."
"Herd immunity means that there is so much immunity that there's almost no virus."
"Most the patient's we see had a very very mild form of disease and if you from what the epidemiologists tell me that is the vast majority of these millions of cases we see globally have very mild to no symptoms."
"Epidemiology enables us to determine where diseases originate, how they move through populations, and why they're moving, and understand how we can prevent them."
"Epidemiology is about 80% of our nutritional knowledge."
"For every 10,000 people with the risk factor... you know that only a hundred are actually going to get the cancer."
"Cases in France are picking up, unfortunately."
"Pandemics don't happen every year. They happen in 10 years and 20."
"It would be very surprising if the coronavirus were an exception, almost certainly true."
"Since the first case in Nahiku, scientists at the CDC had tested hundreds of blood samples."
"The more time you give a virus... the more likely it is that stronger variants end up becoming the dominant strain."
"For every one person who gets the seasonal flu, they will pass it on to on average 1.3 people."
"You don't get it because we're not epidemiologists, but that doesn't mean it's untrustworthy inherently."
"At this very moment there are thousands of viruses evolving..."
"The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December."
"Ba5 should gradually become more predominant than ba4, which is slightly less transmissible."
"We can say with a degree of certainty I'm afraid, will be in the United Kingdom and the United States for next winter."
"Cases per million people officially confirmed and diagnosed... Of course, this has to be taken with some caution."
"The more ivermectin used in a state, the greater reduction in deaths."
"Community spread was already established in New York before the first cases were officially diagnosed."
"The epidemiology does not support that this vaccine does anything other than consistently protect against serious illness."
"The science is there, the epidemiology is there, the common sense is there."
"The link between cases and hospitalizations is breaking."
"I'm hoping the peak is going to be reached in the next week or so."
"The longer a virus has to spread through a population, the more chances it gets to mutate and the more likely one of those mutations will turn out to make the virus deadlier or more resistant to vaccines."
"The corona virus has spread to countries across the world but officials believe that it all started in Wuhan, China."
"It is a game-changer and the reason it's a game-changer is that it allows you to understand the proportion of the asymptomatic population who's had this disease but hasn't had symptoms that are in any way significant."
"Cases dropping off means less people are going to get sick."
"The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge."
"The infectiousness of a virus is measured by the basic reproduction number or the R number."
"The death rate was falling all over the world, even in countries like Sweden that didn't impose lockdowns."
"15 years later people would begin to be born who are actually immune to the virus."
"On China, they report for the first time since the outbreak no new cases over a 24-hour period."
"About one percent took Ascenta, fifty-three to sixty-five percent in the Masai. All of them, fantastically lean, healthy, and without heart disease."
"Plagues never take place in a vacuum; they remind us that humans are animals."
"Some people are super spreaders, responsible for 80% of the transmission."
"Identifying super spreaders is crucial to reducing the spread of infectious diseases."
"To stop the spread, we need to get the R naught below one."
"An outbreak of tularemia on Martha's Vineyard had claimed one life and infected more than a dozen other people."
"What you see is a steady decline in the number of confirmed COVID deaths."
"Several forensic studies indicated that the United Nations stabilization missions likely introduced the cholera epidemic that has killed more than 8,000 people in Haiti."
"Almost everybody in the country is on hydroxyl argument because they have a they have the nation the world's largest malaria burden."
"Hugely increasing cases, but increasing mildness."
"With the tools we have in place now plus vaccination, we could bring transmission so low."
"Asymptomatic carriers will inevitably serve as a breeding ground for more infectious variants."
"Cases could pass a hundred thousand cases a day soon." - Dr. Anthony Fauci
"So we don't know we will never test the entire state so we extrapolate out we use the data we have because it's the most accurate we have."
"We are estimating a hundred thousand to four hundred thousand deaths."
"Sudden death among healthy working age people worldwide is skyrocketing."
"The number of people dying of resistant organisms could potentially even surpass cancer."
"Here's evidence that these E. coli, the E. coli in the urinary tract infection, the E. coli and the food came from the same original E. coli population."
"Between six to nine million patients may be suffering from long covet in the U.S. right now."
"Eigenvalues help us understand how quickly a disease will spread throughout a population."
"Over 85% of adults in the United States are metabolically ill."
"Epidemics will be redefined as multi causal and the approaches then will have to engage personalized health improvement."
"The official cases have doubled in the past week."
"The Omicron strain prevalent in China is the B.1.1.529 or the B.1.1.529.1 variants. Some call it the 'hand of hell.'"
"The Black Death, aka The Plague, was responsible for some of the most horrific bodycounts in all of history."
"There's a real chance to bend the curve and reduce the number of cases."
"Why is it that the most vaccinated state in the country, Vermont, had the highest COVID rate?"
"It's very interesting to see how vaccination affects the severity of infections. For example, the rate of death in unvaccinated individuals is drastically higher compared to vaccinated individuals."
"The corrupted blood incident got so infamous that apparently it's become a subject of study by actual epidemiologists."
"The attack rate of this condition globally could be high... epidemiological modelers believe that thirty percent of us can get this infection in the first year of the outbreak."
"We need the antibody data to see what's starting off here without that we're really not going to find the origins of this virus." - Maria Van Kirkhove
"Pandemics often happen when there's a natural interaction between humans and animals."
"Every sport on the planet has its superstars, those that are able to win the crowd, become showered in elation, and sometimes even transcend their sport."
"For every single person identified as having the virus actively, there are 50 people out there who had it and never showed up with a positive test."
"As the background rate of infection in the population goes up the risk that you're positive is a false positive goes down."
"Is the virus weaker... as the virus becomes faster and faster it has to become less lethal otherwise it cannot continue on..."
"So the lucky thing there is the fatality rate is low but the fact that a virus can just take over an entire population so quickly is terrifying."
"A disease that starts burning low and slow at first, but with the possibility of a looming mutation within the strain, you get an unmitigated disaster."
"Getting the independent testing end result is going to be huge...nobody's doing a proper epidemiological study."
"Human transmission would not be surprising given our experiences with SARS, MERS, and other respiratory pathogens."
"A pandemic scenario... almost every epidemiologist agrees that we're long overdue for a pandemic."
"The disease rate has dropped as the virus has moved to younger, healthier individuals."
"Most viruses that have been in host populations for a long time don't cause severe pathogenesis."
"The xbb variant has now become the dominant strain in China."
"They say that you can expect a super outbreak like this every 40 years in the U.S."
"I think what everybody has to pay attention to is that this is math this is not speculation we see how this virus penetrates a population how it rides through it and and the problems that it causes."
"Diseases evolve and change, and in some cases, they die out."
"As long as we have a lot of infections, millions and millions, we will have variants."
"More transmissible gets everywhere quicker but less deadly."
"The prevalence of essential tremor increases with increasing age."
"The flu has an R naught value of about 1.3, while early indications show the coronavirus has an R naught value of about 2.3."
"The mortality rate of the coronavirus is about 20 times greater than that of the seasonal flu."
"SARS-CoV-2 is a member of a very large family of coronaviruses, and novel coronaviruses will likely emerge in the future."
"I've got cases in nine countries."
"You hear these things bouncing around, I've seen some things, but like you say, they're epidemiology and I just, right, you know?"
"There are more viruses than people on Earth."
"So in terms of the epidemiology, it looks as though borderline patients or BPD occurs in about 2% of the population."
"Epidemiologists often have to work quickly to assess and respond to a health emergency regardless of the timeline involved."
"Without good epidemiological data derived from studies, then we are just guessing at what the problem is and what we should do about it."
"We do have data showing that it has truly increased in frequency not only in the United States but across the world there has been a dramatic increase in the disease."
"Every pandemic and epidemic influenza is descended from 1918."
"...most people are going to realize what incidence is so to take an example of Ohio we have about ten and a half million people so if you look at the incidence we would expect about ten and a half new cases per year..."
"Epidemiologists do not change people's diet and see what happens... instead they give them food questionnaires."
"This virus may have been an intermediate between bats and people."
"In a case control study, we identify a group of individuals who have the outcome of interest and we call them as cases. And we also identify a group of individuals who do not have the outcome of interest and we call them controls."
"Epidemiology through data collection and analysis is going to give us the evidence that we need to have targeted and effective interventions."
"Descriptive epidemiology tells the story of a disease in a population from the standpoint of person, place, and time."
"Epidemiology is a way of thinking, it's a way of adding wisdom to numbers that otherwise are alone in a void without context."
"The CDC collects and analyzes epidemiological information in the entire United States, publishing the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) to track the spread of diseases."
"Herd immunity prevents the spread of infection by the presence of immunity in most of the population."
"...epidemiology is more important now than it ever was because short-term trials are not enough to understand long-term disease."
"In every outbreak or spillover, there's some kind of disruption as I said just in some cases we just haven't figured it out but there always is something anthropogenic activity that leads to the outbreak so it's in the end it's our fault really."
"There are 10 to the 29th virus infections a day."
"Sometimes things jump; they don't tend to spread. That jump and spread are two different skills, and the likelihood of it doing both things well is pretty low. Most of the time, it doesn't jump, and when it does jump, it doesn't tend to spread."
"Inapparent or asymptomatic infections are a problem because you can't stop an epidemic."
"80% of transmissions are caused by just 10% of infectious individuals."
"It's useful for doing serial prevalence studies to get an estimate of what fraction of the population has been exposed. That's probably its main role."
"How does temperature and seasonality impact the transmission of covid-19?"
"In 1929, a virus went from a chimp to patient zero, and since then we've had 78 million infections, 39 million deaths. One monkey did all this."
"We can clearly see a concentration of cholera victims around the Broad Street water pump."
"Epidemiologists. It's a wonderful field. It is such a spectacularly wonderful field."
"The history of each epidemic disease is distinct."
"A zoonosis is the transmission of a virus from a wild or domesticated animal to humans."
"Jon Snow showed that there was a connection between contaminated water and cholera."
"It's the nature of the way diseases spread; we're going to learn about it in a lot of other areas, just to not just COVID-19."
"Epidemiology is a science that examines patterns, causes, and effects of disease on the health of a given population."
"An epidemiologist is a scientist who's trained to identify the factors that cause disease, that transmit disease, and that help prevent or reduce future diseases."
"Epidemiology... studies the spread and the control of diseases."
"In any epidemiological study design, you study the association between two things: exposure and outcome."
"Epidemiology is really the foundation of Public Health."
"Some epidemiologists are sort of like medical detectives, there on the ground collecting data, talking to people, solving mysteries about what causes diseases in a population."
"John Snow's innovation was that he was going to use maps and numbers to describe the epidemic of the outbreak."
"Epidemiology... it's the science of using non-medical tools - mathematics, paper, your mind, your hands, your feet - to learn something about disease that otherwise you would not have known."
"If we can show where the most likely come from, the species they most likely to origin, and the people most likely to get affected, a global actor like WHO or a national government can better allocate resources to the highest risk."
"Vehicle transmission is when you spread a disease through a media such as water, food, air, or blood."
"Cohort studies are an extremely useful study design for quantifying the strength of association between an exposure and an outcome."
"Cases are still decreasing which is good news."
"Think about how many people in the United States are diagnosed every day with diabetes, diabetes type 1 and type 2."
"We need to identify the source of the infections and their roots, trace and manage all close contacts, treat patients in isolation and keep them under observation."
"An endemic disease is always present in the population, like the flu; however, some years we have an epidemic, an increase in disease incidence."
"A pandemic is an epidemic that has spread over a wide geographic area."
"The incidence rate... and the mortality analysis associated with that, show a fairly consistent pattern of watershed areas of the bowel being involved in this type of event."
"FDA warnings are not always based on complete epidemiological studies that really answer issues of causation."
"There are almost 800,000 new victims per year; there's a new stroke victim every 40 seconds."
"...the first human virus, yellow fever virus, discovered because they were trying to dig the Panama Canal and the diggers would keep getting yellow fever and dying."
"The most likely mechanism is that viruses in animals spill over to humans and cause disease because humans have no immunity against these animal viruses."
"It's the WHO estimates that about a third of the world's population in fact have latent TB."
"Each year we see 9 million new cases and roughly 1.5 million people die."
"I work on primarily epidemiology, infectious disease, as well as Bayesian statistics, computational statistics, and evidence-based medicine."
"Kids are usually the vectors of contagion to the rest of us."
"The probability of connections in the percolation model is equivalent to the probability that a person transmits the flu to another person."
"The percolation threshold in the percolation model is really exactly equivalent to the epidemic threshold."
"If there's somebody who has a lot of contacts with other people and if that person got sick, they could spread the disease to a lot of other people."
"This is real data from an actual outbreak of an actual disease, SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome."
"There's an urgent need for epidemiological assessments of those interventions."
"One person with measles on average will infect 14 other people if they haven't been vaccinated."
"Climate change may make many human diseases more prevalent in more parts of the world as the earth's climate warms."
"It was the rise of unsaturated vegetable oils that perfectly coincided with the rise in heart attacks."
"It's believed Lyme disease affects some 300,000 people annually in this country."
"It spreads rapidly through both air and liquid vectors, but has an incubation period of up to 3 months, followed by an 80 percent mortality rate."
"John Snow hypothesized that contaminated water was the cause... an action which swiftly reduced the mortality rate."
"We could understand how pandemics form and why particular flu viruses cause more disease than others."
"Human behavior may end up dictating how not only COVID goes through the winter but also how the flu season progresses."
"Herd immunity is when enough people in the population become immune to the infectious disease so the channels of spread stop."
"Asymptomatic transmission from the nose and mouth really speaks to the epidemiology of spread."
"Generally, epidemics end when 50 to 70 percent of the population become immune to the virus."
"It's really important to understand the prevalence of the disease within the population you're studying."
"Multiple animal species were infected and these viruses were present across multiple species for multiple weeks at least."
"Thyroid cancer is very common, there's at least 60,000 new cases in the United States this year alone."
"The epidemiologic triad or the EPI triangle is one of the most commonly used models to explain infectious disease and to illustrate the relationship between an agent, a host, and the environment."
"Surveillance information has many uses, including how we monitor trends of disease."
"Examples of time series include incidence of disease over time, cases of COVID over time."
"This H1N1 outbreak is really world's first open-source outbreak."
"Getting more data from early full-length genomes of early cases in Wuhan is critically important."
"We probably don't have a single index patient; we probably have multiple."
"It's not that the virus is moving away from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and then across the city, it's actually moving towards it from the Huanan market."
"Each mosquito is biting on the average of one v / day."
"The probability of biting a contagious person is simply equal to the density of contagious people."
"The probability of biting a vulnerable person is the same: vulnerable population divided by the total population."