"Headline economic success doesn't always equate to genuine economic success."
"Inflation has increased notably in recent months. The 12-month change in PCE prices was 3.6 percent in April and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating."
"Falling prices for food on the shelves is good news for consumers, actually it could represent really bad news in the long term."
"Gold and silver are the canaries in the coal mine. They are the alarm bells that signal whether world central banks are doing a good job of managing their currencies or not."
"Inflation... once again the latest CPI data and one of the worst things that could happen right now for the central bank is for us to go into this reacceleration of inflation."
"Unemployment remains historically low at 3.6 percent."
"The issues faced by New York Community Banks... could potentially mirror the broader narrative of the American economy, a narrative that points to a ticking time bomb."
"U.S. job openings rose in April, reversing a three-month job decline, indicating strong employer demand."
"Data from the New York Fed shows that the delinquency rate on auto loans, credit card loans, and mortgages is surging."
"The price of oil is a really good barometer as to what's going on in the global economy."
"Average hourly earnings are rising fast, they are up 7.4% at an annualized rate."
"We have the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, record numbers of workers returning to the workforce, highest job labor force participation rate."
"The stock market is not the real kind of effect of economy. The stock market is artificially inflated."
"The unemployment rate is at 3.6 percent, that is under four percent for the longest stretch in 50 years."
"Inflation, wealth disparity, homelessness, deepening political divisions, failing infrastructure, neighbor going against neighbor and so much more are all indicators of really a slow motion collapse."
"America's economic winning streak under President Trump evidenced by strong job creation, rising wages, rapid business growth, soaring consumer confidence, and increased manufacturing activity."
"Every time in U.S. history that this has happened, that home prices have gone way above fundamentals, there's typically a housing crash."
"I do want to emphasize what a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy."
"The US economy tonight: the US adding more than 353,000 new jobs last month, far more than expected."
"Every time you get an inverted yield curve, you get a rise in employment in the months that follow. Every time."
"Over the last two and a half years, look at food prices at home up 20%, electricity up 21%, gasoline prices up 72%."
"The key point to look for throughout the next year is simply going to be how many new homes are coming on the market."
"Gold prices reached a record intraday price of $2080 this month."
"Inverted yield curves are one of the best indicators we have of coming recession in the data series."
"The debt ratio to gross domestic product is going to just keep going up."
"Gas prices have indeed come down. This past week they came down at the fastest pace in over a decade."
"If we do get continued-- a strong housing data, that tends to further support a bullish commodity thesis because homebuilding is one of the more commodity-intensive things in an economy."
"When unemployment goes down, everybody wanted to engage with China."
"The payment ratio spiked to 47 percent which is above what it was at the peak of the last housing bubble."
"The economy has not been this bad since the Great Depression."
"The Biden economy has been strong, strong job growth, historically low unemployment, rising wages, growing consumer confidence, strong economic growth, lower inflation, and a stock market that's breaking records."
"Look at that, the stock market was celebrating the benign inflation report. I think that's a good way to reference it, it was just a benign report."
"Anytime you get an inversion of the yield curve you get this fear that we might be heading towards recession."
"Gold tends to go up when people are concerned about government."
"When I see the next run on the shadow banking system... that'll be the sign that this cycle is over and that a disaster lies on the horizon."
"If energy went down we have plenty of indicators saying maybe maybe the year-to-date ready is a fagazi maybe it's just another bear Market Matty."
"Gold hitting $15,000 an ounce means something is really screwed up in the economy."
"If the dollar price of gold is going up, what's really happening is that the value of the dollar is going down."
"27 million jobless claims, and that's just the tip of the iceberg."
"The levels of debt, inflation, and interest rates... could lead to a major financial crisis not seen for generations."
"The jobs in this country... 10 million swing toward the positive side."
"So take a look here prices have dropped between six percent and thirteen percent and they're at their lowest prices seen since 2021."
"Food prices tend to be an important fuel to the story of unrest."
"Oil prices were seen as peaking, investors may have seen the oil drop to near 100 after the massive 130 a barrel height." - Goldman Sachs
"All equities are seeing a sell-off... S&P 500 is down two percent, gold's down more than two percent."
"S&P closed above 4,900 for the first time ever S&P and DOW sixth record close NASDAQ 100 seventh record close SNP hit a new Inay alltime High the Dow hit a new intraday alltime High folks that's what's going on and that is infuriating Donald Trump."
"The simple truth is that the United States has now had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The United States is in a recession."
"Car repossessions are on the rise, a warning sign for the economy."
"We've added nearly 10 trillion dollars of new value to our economy."
"I often say to clients if housing is not improving, nothing is."
"Every sector is green except for oil and we got the VIX once again below 18."
"The progression goes H-O-P-E: housing, orders, profits, employment."
"Backwardation is actually the more bullish signal, not contango."
"Several products... are gonna be in short supply."
"Earnings to date nearing 50 percent increase year over year for quarterly profits on the S&P 500."
"January is always a very critical year for the stock market. It's kind of like the barometer to get a vibe on which direction the market's going to go."
"Knowing that the data you want to pay attention to is inflation."
"The fact that it's below 50 means that we're seeing a decline in manufacturing."
"Inflation has fallen well below our symmetric two percent objective."
"The market hit nearly all-time highs yesterday, reflecting retail strength."
"African American youth unemployment has also reached the lowest level ever recorded in history."
"Our employment numbers are the best that they've been perhaps ever."
"We need something other than GDP in terms of analyzing our success as societies."
"Both numbers higher than expected, this was the largest 12-month increase since..."
"Used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, going at 10.5% in June."
"Americans aren't stupid guys and it's showing up in these sentiment indicators."
"Even though the country claims it's only doing that to ensure it has enough food on hand to feed its large population, something the country has struggled with historically, the data indicates otherwise."
"When target and walmart are struggling you know it's really bad."
"We're seeing delinquencies really start to spike now."
"It's really shocking very strong GDP numbers especially on the consumption side."
"On March 6, the average price of gas in the U.S broke four dollars a gallon... breaking an all-time record high."
"The lower GDI numbers are basically indicating that the economy is weaker than we're being told by the folks looking at the GDP numbers."
"Gold is down down 1.4 percent that's a huge move for gold."
"Rising inflation expectations and declining real yields."
"Job postings are going up, and that's a very promising sign."
"The employment numbers are at a record. The African-American employment is the best that's ever been."
"The consumer makes up 72% of our economy, so if we're heading into a recession, we need to look at the consumer."
"The decline in all these key indicators makes it clear there's an acute trust deficit amongst investors."
"The bond market and the ISM are tied at the hip."
"Price drops like these are actually a healthy sign for the market."
"Electricity consumption is often a very good indicator of economic growth."
"Within one to nine months, asset prices go up... commodities tend to go up almost instant once you get a big change in the money supply."
"I'm not smarter than a market, this action is telling me there's still more to go with just what we're seeing purely in the market."
"You'll know when the last song is being played when everybody's panicking."
"Recessions actually usually start after the FED pauses because the FED usually waits too long."
"Average normies start getting into an investment? There's probably a bubble."
"A strong stock market doesn't necessarily mean a healthy economy."
"The biggest indicator about the strength of the economy is just the unemployment rate."
"In October the average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate surpassed 7% for the first time in twenty years."
"Indexes are very much driven by PE multiple expansion... if you get the reverse of that, you're going to see PE multiple shrinkage."
"The quit rate, the number of people quitting in the workforce, has been skyrocketing."
"DK and Diddy punched their moon, smashing an island."
"People are terrified right now, and that's how you know we're probably getting to a bottom here."
"The housing sector remains very strong and business investment is increasing at a solid pace."
"Bitcoin dropped below the bull market band back in November and once again about a month later you're seeing ethereum follow."
"The number one indicator of demand is where people put their money. Where do they put their money? That's what matters."
"I think these are huge, huge economic indicators and quite frankly warning signs."
"The market can lead the economic data by six to nine months... the market is saying that in six to nine months all that data that you're talking about is about to start getting better."
"Job openings are at the highest point in history."
"When these companies just decide at some point it's time to pull the cord, what happens is that the unemployment rate in America historically it tends to shoot up very very fast."
"Tourism minister ed bartlett says the figure is 65 of airlift bookings for the corresponding period in 2019."
"The bond market is already suggesting an economic slowdown."
"The clutch is so smooth, I wish all manual cars felt like this."
"Consumers are feeling better because the stock market's going up."
"The listings have increased over the last month."
"This could be very dangerous in terms of inflation."
"If there was really inflation coming, the store shelves should be constantly wiped out over and over."
"One of the key indicators of a bear market is good news won't move the price." - Unknown
"Gold and silver are both up, things hear about gold soaring."
"Wow, we didn't know that! Matter of fact, the hashtag #marketcrash was the number one trending hashtag on Twitter today."
"The fall in property prices is causing these problems, but also highlighting weaknesses in the financial system – like the issues with deposit insurance."
"The labor market looks absolutely terrific, but yet look at the other side, ours worked in average weekly hours have plummeted down to nearly the pandemic lows."
"More teens have jobs right now than we've seen in over a decade."
"Tesla and Apple surge, making up over 10.5% of S&P 500 market cap."
"Population growth... best long-term indicator of Demand."
"When you see central bank balance sheets growing, when you see that denominator being debased, then that's an indicator to be bullish on assets and particularly crypto assets."
"If we end up going even slightly negative on Revenue year over year for Apple by as much as a dollar we will be at the start of an earnings recession."
"It's entirely possible that a lot of the pain that we're seeing in the market right now is literally just, I mean you got to ask yourself what fund manager wants to jump into the market the day before the CPI data comes out."
"My expectation is that most companies are going to be reporting healthy to very healthy quarters from Q4 of 2021."
"Interest rate cuts are not good, it's always a warning sign that the economy is slipping into a recession."
"We've made remarkable progress in the past year: 2.5 million new jobs; unemployment at a 17-year low."
"Every single time this happens, it's more bullish than bearish..."
"A rising gold price is an indication of a failing currency; they want you going to Bitcoin, which is easier for them to control."
"We got low unemployment rate... wages are on the upward move."
"And unemployment has reached the lowest rate in 51 years."
"The US is currently experiencing its lowest unemployment rate in 20 years."
"So even though the official unemployment rate has come down uh somewhat if you look at say the number of jobs in the economy uh you know we're still very very short of what the total number of jobs were pre pandemic."
"If we stick with GDP, we are sunk because robot trucks will be tremendous for GDP and they will be terrible for the people of New Hampshire and many people around the country."
"An encouraging sign for America's economy: U.S. manufacturing surged to a 15-month high, beating economists' expectations."
"British manufacturing output grew at its fastest pace in nearly three years in July."
"Hiring has exploded, unemployment at ridiculously low numbers."
"Each individual small case of Venezuela or Argentina or Turkey or Greece or Cyprus is the flapping wings of a butterfly the hurricane when it comes how it comes and even on what continent it begins is unknowable but that it will occur is knowable."
"Every single time we're at the beginning of a recession the unemployment rate is very low just like it is today in 2023."
"Crypto hitting a two trillion dollar market cap was a signal that we're in the beginning phases."
"Revenue continues to go up, regulatory credits continue to be a smaller and smaller percent."
"The market wants just a little weaker job... to make the FED stop."
"Industrial production is increasing at the fastest rate ever recorded."
"I don't think the stock market is an indication of the economy."
"Auto sales continue to soar, up 3.6% last month."
"Big moves higher in inflation are followed by one ominous signal: a recession."
"The fact that gold is held up so much to be honest it tells me there's big institutional accumulation."
"There are three economic indicators screaming sell. They don't imply than a 50 percent collapse is looming; it's already at our doorstep."
"Just because we get inflation doesn't necessarily mean the economy is improving. The economy can get much, much worse regardless of what the inflation headline number actually reads."
"Telecoms, autos, healthcare, software sales, tech hardware... these sectors are starting to pop off a little bit here with strength."
"When valuations start to go awry, when they stop making sense, well, that's one of those indicators that a recession is just around the corner."
"Unemployment is so low Taco Bell is offering now a six-figure salary and they're putting out paid sick leave."
"We're starting to see that employment growth slow."
"Housing market is a barometer for how the economy is responding."
"Gold prices surged to record high amid coronavirus worries and U.S.-China tensions."
"At a macro level, if there was just one indicator that I could know regarding the consumer, it would be real disposable household income." - Chief Economic Advisor at Goldman Sachs
"The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits has fallen steadily since May of last year."
"U.S. oil supplies are tightening according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration."
"We're seeing some prices that were almost pre-bull run, pre-meta announcement, just putting the metaverse boom into action last fall."
"If you want to get an indication of which direction the Market's going to move up or down, then you want to pay attention to the fed and what they're doing with interest rates."
"If indeed is cutting 15% of their Workforce, that's a sign that they're seeing something ahead in the U.S economy which is not good."
"Last year we had two quarters in a row of negative GDP... so it looks like we're in a recession anyway."
"We want fewer job openings... if we come in hot again it could be a red Catalyst for the market."
"San Francisco is basically the calling card of what's to come in other areas."
"Transaction volume is picking up... resembling the early phase of a bull market."
"Gas prices across the country per gallon would probably be something like $5.50 to $6 dollars."
"Whenever you see these yield curve inversions, a recession typically follows."
"Value indicator: when we hit this layer eight times in 13 years and we're at it now."
"Do credit markets break like they broke in 2018?"
"Both Bitcoin and gold appeared to be reacting as the U.S.-China trade war escalates."
"Stocks imply 85% chance of a U.S. recession."
"It's a good reminder though that the stock market isn't the only measure of the health of our economy."
"The price of oil keeps fluctuating, leading to high inflation."
"Your income balloons as the gold price goes up."
"Obviously we do this live stream now every month basically CPI and we're gonna take a look at a few charts."
"Futures bounced up right around our key level 37.40, we're going into 3800."
"Every week we got a new large company telling us there is either a hiring freeze or they're outright laying off people."
"One in four contracts canceled in Las Vegas, Jacksonville, San Antonio, New Orleans, Orlando."
"Pay attention to the dollar because as we stated prior the dollar dxy right here is at its lower end of the zone."
"The nail in the coffin for the dip buyers would be if the CPI this week comes out hot."
"Until the VIX closes the day below 20, the bulls are not out of the woods yet."
"For there to be a recession the aggregate index must go below zero."
"An objective basket of those five measures is only growing at a 0.9 percent pace."
"LOOK, THE SITUATION FOR US, FROM OUR STANDPOINT, WE WERE MOVING WELL."
"Blood diamonds popping up are definitely more of a bearish sign."
"What if we lose Amazon because the consumer gets weaker?"
"UPS is an important indicator for the health of the economy."
"Abnormal readings way too high or way too low are probably indicative of a change in Direction."
"The reality that you start to see is that if we start to see a softening on the Fed, a potential retracement on inflation, how Bitcoin responds to that I think is quite possibly different than what the S&P or traditional finance responds to."
"Unemployment goes way way down, that's a success."
"A rising gold price indicates a failing fiat currency."
"Good news for the new year: fewer Americans are applying for unemployment benefits, but the number is still incredibly high."
"Looking at Rising unemployment as an indicator of a coming recession seems kind of like crossing the street and watching for cars as a bus silently flattens you."
"Spiking unemployment and foreclosures were catalysts for the last housing market crash."
"The housing market is passing an inflection point this spring and we're on our way to a more balanced real estate market."
"Home sold prices are up a record high up to 390,000 according to Redfin."
"The average loan size for brand new houses has reached an all-time record high of $436,000."
"It's a very big positive to see that treasury yields are rising."
"Money you keep in your pocket is what tells you whether or not the economy is flourishing."
"Is there another signal that we could pay attention to in addition to what the Fed is doing?"
"When the dollar goes to crap then gold goes higher."
"More than money and assets, the GDP indicates the health of an economy."
"The fear greed index is extreme, there's a degree of complacency, everybody's largely on the same boat."
"When the yield curve starts to invert, there's a recession within six to twelve months."
"We're seeing a re-acceleration of commodity prices... look at agricultural commodities as one example that's been surging recently."
"Ethereum fees are dipping to record lows for the first time in months."