"Predictive analytics helps to forecast trends based on the current events."
"Take this with a grain of salt, this is very far out, and...when we're looking at the GFS model in the extended range, the details aren't that important."
"To make your civilization robust against the sort of disruptions even positive black swans can bring, you have to be constantly questioning your basic assumptions about future predictions."
"We will be ending the year by discussing the predictability of the future."
"Be adaptive. Every 10 years, you have another big shock."
"The levels of building of concern usually means that in the coming 12 months, let's say, things are likely to change dramatically."
"I think mentioning a six-month it's to give a general look forward about the sorts of links of this type of kin Demick."
"Mathematics can help us make certain predictions about the future."
"The best predictor of future performance is past performance."
"Making predictions about what inos are going to do is like pissing in the wind."
"Market cycle bottoms may be approaching, but it's essential to consider various indicators for confirmation."
"I think it's going to be somewhere in that 60 70 80 range, and I actually think 80 is a legitimate number."
"We need to stop investing in what causes pain and punishment and start investing in what allows communities to thrive."
"Netflix ain't going nowhere, at least until it starts running out of money."
"We're really bad at predicting whether these things are going to happen or not."
"We're in a collision course for Trump versus the media part three."
"The hottest sectors that are going to see the biggest growth in 2021 and early 2022 are not going to be the ones that see the biggest growth in 2023 and 2024."
"Well, this is you know the purpose of a model is you know right away where it's wrong and then you can then adapt feel good about being able to adapt that this thing pushes further into 2022 uh being that we're positioned strongly here now."
"Technical analysis is simply a tool to make probabilistic forecasts of future price behavior based on price history."
"Always take data very seriously; it can give great insight into the future."
"The best forecasters were simply right people with wide-ranging interests."
"2021 is going to be really good, but 2022 to 2024 will be the real bulk of the run."
"We give you guys our predictions on where we think the market is going to go for the top 5 major pairs."
"There's a lot of narrative setups that are happening right now that point to more inflation coming down the pike."
"Remember that authorities who look at our forecasts can use the information to prevent the events from happening in the first place."
"Nobody can accurately forecast the future but... assess the storm's strength on the horizon."
"I look at it as... continually predicting the future... creating higher probabilities of being healthier, happier, and wealthier in the future while living extraordinary in the present."
"Best case scenario if we don't change anything, India can reach the per capita income level of Iran or Malaysia in 20 years."
"THE BRAIN IS TRYING TO SEE HOW THINGS FIT TOGETHER AND HOW SCENARIOS MAY PLAY OUT IN THE FUTURE."
"From 130-140 million users now to 1 billion in 2024."
"What we've experienced so far is just a small taste of what we're going to have to swallow when it comes to higher prices."
"Forecasts create an illusion of apparent precision... The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be."
"Isn't it interesting how much the political machinery can predict what the public is going to be doing years down in the future?"
"But let me hold off on that, because I want to actually show you that these little r's, which we can observe, contain information about the future course of interest rates right within the little r."
"We'll never take credit for nailing the numbers because we were way off, but the timeline we were dead on."
"The market can lead the economic data by six to nine months... the market is saying that in six to nine months all that data that you're talking about is about to start getting better."
"Trust that it's schizo season, that's going to be the big differentiator going forward."
"I think they're going to walk back next week."
"Bloomberg NEF is expecting prices to begin Falling Again in 2024."
"So bottom line in the short term, you know, the first two or three years after a pandemic lots of uncertainty."
"Well, I'm a geopolitical strategist, which is a fancy way of saying I help people figure out what the world is going to hold for them down the line, good, bad or indifferent."
"Heading into the spring of 2023, there was a wide range of possible endgame outcomes."
"We pretty much get the macro stuff right about 70% of the time, which is a very high batting average."
"AI could actually break consensus GDP estimates."
"I think it's one to keep watching over the next month or so."
"It's actually looking really, really good for tomorrow. Sunny, clear skies conditions."
"Significant changes to your health, business, relationships, and finances are coming."
"For the next one and a half years, this will have more political impact rather than economic impact."
"The bottom line is this week is going to be very important."
"This week is going to lead towards a massive, huge, and ever so significant tipping point."
"The best performers next cycle will be in the strongest niches."
"One way or the other, it does seem like times are about to get pretty lean for Blizzard Entertainment."
"There's going to be an awful lot of people still getting sick in india right up until august."
"Exciting times ahead! The next 18 months will be incredible, in fact, there's a chart here that says it could be the next 24 months as well, so be ready everybody!"
"Markets are forward-looking, valuing based on what it's gonna look like tomorrow."
"But most importantly in terms of current pricing, this is my thought process: the market again is looking at 2023 numbers right now based on the wrong metrics, and it's valuing today's stock based on those wrong metrics."
"San Francisco is basically the calling card of what's to come in other areas."
"Gas prices across the country per gallon would probably be something like $5.50 to $6 dollars."
"2025, this will be the biggest company in the world market capitalization wise."
"October and November particularly are going to be massive months for the world."
"No model is perfect. Models are a way to try interpret and understand where things can go over time."
"Covid-19 is the third major coronavirus pandemic of the 21st century. A fourth one is brewing."
"2022 into 2023 really might be a pivotal pivotal time in world history."
"On average, 1.5 million jobs per year being created over the next decade, that is obviously very incredible."
"Maths gives you a lens to look into the future."
"Risk factors must be considered in projecting a company's future worth."
"With these big data sets and careful statistical methods, they have shown remarkable ability to forecast a lot of interesting things."
"When it comes to inflation, let me tell you a scenario that I can see."
"Now the predominant reason that is, is potentially a second round of inflation."
"So, for all those wondering, there's a very early prediction that this was going to happen."
"Forecasting out is extremely difficult, as everybody knows, particularly short term."
"We can perfectly model the characteristics... and make a forecast... without deterministically modeling each underlying independent variable."
"Our job is to identify how many vehicles are they going to sell over the next two to five years. What's the profitability around those vehicles? I mean, it's as simple as that."
"All the indicators are pointing towards recession."
"Every cycle has been longer than the last, longer. So it wouldn't be too crazy to see a cycle go out into, you know, May of 2022, even summer 2022."
"We see a solid five to seven year growth path for Tesla."
"I think rates are going to have to go to 3.50 or even four percent."
"Predicting the future is impossible, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to try and do it. It's really fun to try and guess what's going to change."
"The key quality in the predictions business is humility, and it's also the one in shorter supply."
"A lot of investing is forecasting. It's learning to have clarity on where things are headed."
"I'm making a prediction everybody. I have made my prediction."
"The long-term picture is a lot easier and a lot more accurate than the short-term picture."
"It's going to continue downwards now." - Forecasting future trends
"Wouldn't it be nice if these analysts would actually let us know what's going to happen beforehand?"
"I don't just rely on one model or two, I'm looking at everything out there for you to keep you posted on what's coming next."
"By looking at the past, you can help predict the future."
"TA is like history class in school won't guarantee what will happen tomorrow but we know we we can't know where we're going until we know where we've been."
"Yep, there is 100% chance of a recession within the next 12 to 24 months."
"If you understand the business and the business is within your circle of competence then by definition you know with some boundaries what the future of the business is likely to look like."
"Mark's prediction is based on an indicator that has only triggered a handful of times in the last 72 years."
"Problems in the car market precede larger problems in the economy."
"Tesla's inevitable dominance over the next decade."
"Assuming Tesla can get the materials and the battery cells... my bull case shows Tesla significantly ahead of the competition."
"Long range weather forecasting is equally wrong as long range investment forecasting."
"Forecasting is the north star of your business."
"An absolute hot spot for modern earthquake forecasting."
"The two big things aside from top line and gross margin here to watch for would be Tesla's outlook on the supply chain."
"So we're going to cover what is the actual most bullish possible price."
"The difference with the projection is it involves aspects of risk. It gives you a calculated guess."
"I think people in the short term tend to overestimate the impact, but in the long term underestimate the impact."
"We overestimate adoption in a year and underestimate it in 10."
"Forecasts are difficult when they involve the future; we don't know what the future will bring."
"There are two kinds of forecasters: the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know."
"Their job is to focus on the forecast to rise what inflation is going to be let's say in two years time."
"Tsunamis are forecastable if you have enough information about how they've behaved over the last thousand years or two or three or four Cycles you can really make significant forecasts that people living in the area actually can do something about."
"The stock market is a forecast of the future but it doesn't know the future."
"You can view charts from 12 hours to as far back as seven days, and you can also enable predictive autoscale from here once you're confident in the forecasting model."
"How can we identify such reversals or strength of the trend or even beginning of the trend in the earlier stages?"
"The market leaves clues on what it wants to do next."
"We explain the past with the greatest of ease, but we're really crummy at forecasting the future."
"Interesting to see how this can impact scenario projections."
"Manufacturers anticipate significant market potential, projecting an 80% increase in profitability for smartphones with flexible displays by 2025."
"We have two classes of forecasters. Those who don’t know and those who don’t know, they don’t know."
"Accuracy is crucial in business domain forecasting."
"This is going to be a very interesting category to monitor over the next 12 months."
"You know, the forecasts now are as accurate for five days now as they were for just two or three days 25 years ago."
"Actual forecasting is where ML can be utilized to predict future sales with higher accuracy."
"It just strikes me how difficult it is for people to forecast the future of the monetary system... it's just so hard to forecast."
"This should be the arrow chart like if you had an arrow chart where you could type in your specs and it just showed you what would happen that way then that's a huge huge difference."
"Literally everything here is going to be reduced, assume about 40 to 50 to 60%."
"It was just a raincloud, it was still the morning, we knew stronger winds were forecasted later in the afternoon."
"Forecasting technology in severe weather science improved dramatically between the 1990s and the 2000s."
"The science of forecasting is relatively young, but a tornado can form and dissipate within seconds, within minutes."
"It's kind of like that scenario analysis where you're saying okay this is something that could be down the road."
"Population growth is a really good way to forecast demand."
"Until we can start to see some breaks above some significant overhead resistance areas for our lower term time frames, it is looking like we are going to be continuing lower."
"So just keep it simple. So I really wanted to forecast and view this as a higher time frame. You see this point here, price comes down. I really want you to see it as simple as this."
"I really wanted to forecast and view this as a higher time frame. You see this point here, price comes down. I really want you to see it as simple as this."
"I look forward to an informed conversation today with the panelist on the important discussion about the Chinese economic Outlook and forecasting."
"I think my thesis for a while now has been that whenever they did the free trial and then did their first pricing AC on FSD that that would be the beginning of a new era of software revenues for Tesla."
"Time does wonders for a market and I just believe that we still need to see around three to five or six months into the December time frame where the next scheduled cycle low is due."
"The Gerald tornado changed the way experts watch for twisters. They now view storm systems with low vertical wind shear as possible violent tornado producers."
"What does it really take to make a good forecast? You need data, you need models and a variety of models, you need some sort of knowledge or education, and you need experience."
"If you get the forecasting process right, a lot of times the close is sort of inconsequential. It's just, okay, fine, we're closed. Now we're already thinking about what the next month looks like by the time you get there."
"Learn to utilize seasonal tendencies in the market, they have an uncanny ability to forecast major price swings."
"Given that those forecasts were made assuming that everything was going to be just fine, imagine you'd have gone back in time to tell those forecasters what was about to happen. Do you think they'd have increased their forecasts or decreased them?"
"Linear regression isn't just a jargon, it's a tool that is used for both finding out what are the most important features in your data as well as being used to forecast the future."
"Cointegrated prices if you combine them into a stationary time series then it's stationary so we can be used as future as long as this what you're feeling in this feature is stationary that's good."
"I don't believe in forecasts... not only do I not believe in forecasts... I especially don't believe in my own."
"Since Rachel showed that animals can be used to predict earthquakes, people can no longer dismiss the idea that animals may be better at forecasting than us."
"Computer modeling helps in extreme weather forecasting, playing a vital role in predicting and mitigating extreme weather events."
"Regression helps us to predict the direction of movement in values when X changes."
"Investing is about building a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime."
"We adapt, and the models show us we will."
"I help people figure out what's going to happen in the world and how it's going to impact them. That's my life these days."
"The forecasted values seem to be on trend with what the actual values look like."
"A push process forecasts the demand for a product or service and begins to fill this demand, whereas a pull process starts making the product only after receiving a confirmed demand from customers."
"Anticipating directional moves through market sentiment and scaling techniques"
"Time series forecasting is a very common problem that you face as a data scientist where you have historic data and you want to predict into the future."
"I've given you enough here to find reasons to suspect a highly probable target for weekly objectives."
"Forecasting is important for two reasons. One, the forecast number is what your production team will see on the production page."
"Without an accurate forecast, your finance team is going to struggle to make sure that everything looks good financially."
"Forecasting is difficult, but it's worth it."
"Thank you for attending. Hopefully, this has been beneficial. I find forecasting enjoyable."
"Elio will forecast correctly 80-90 percent of the time."
"I need to know why it will do it, I need to know when it will do it, I need to know when it won't do it."
"Forecasting future growth is crucial for informed investment decisions."
"In this world in which we live now, we can back test and simulate because we can look at history and we can compare it to the current events and we can look at possible futures and compare those to the current events."
"The time value of money calculations really are the science behind it, the art comes in making forecasts of uncertain quantities."
"These growth rates on a year-by-year basis are really what analysts spend a lot of time trying to forecast for a firm."
"That's why I think like it makes sense for our conservative or for our base case to basically linearly grow down just a little bit and that kind of accounts for all uh factors or all kind of like up up and potential up and downs."
"The prices are going to keep dropping and dropping and dropping."
"This storm coming from the West would the Germans know when it'll end? No, they don't."
"It is impossible to live without forecasting. If you continually forecast catastrophically, there's not going to be much left of you."
"Prognosis: forecasting outcomes, not guarantees."
"There's only one thing in the market that can really tell you where you're going, and that's the market structure."
"Perfect foresight doesn't require forecasting every event, but knowing all alternative possibilities and their probabilities."
"How do you see the percentage growing based on Gen Z?"
"Predictive maintenance: forecasting problems ahead of time."
"In Time series, any forecasting model uses past values to then predict the future."
"The highest reputation forecasters who are on television the most on average make the worst predictions."
"Variety also had the Marvels tracking at 75 to 80 million and it ended up getting 47 million so there's definitely room to error."
"So, there's a whole bunch of stuff you need to do...and if you can do all of that, forecasting is still tough, but you will set yourself up for far more successes than you will if you live completely in model land..."
"If it's already this bad this early how bad is it really going to be this afternoon?"
"So, we'll watch this one, it's moving off to the east should stay to the south of Portage and go."
"Forecast are so... the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts today that Brexit will be twice as bad for the UK economy."
"It's not about predictions, it's about the baseline psychology aspect of the entire thing."
"Create an accurate forecast for higher sales service levels and lower inventory levels."
"Your phase-in and phase-out curves determine your new product's lifecycle and forecasting periods."
"The math behind the math: IBP's forecasting model determines your demand forecast."
"This has been a really fun video to kind of recap some of the forecasting that I've done in the past as well as kind of look into the future with some of the products and brands that I need to maybe look more into or that I've been really excited about."
"So the Kalman filter is basically ultimately applied for successive forecasting of the process."
"The heart of darts is definitely the forecasting part, it also comes with all the other relevant functionality required before and after forecasting. Essentially our package offers an end-to-end toolbox."
"Forecasting has its own set of feature engineering methods and concerns around leaking data from the future."
"There's a very interesting exercise you should perform which is to go and look at what economic forecasters were saying about the state of the economy in 2006-2007."
"But today, we’ll try to put a price tag on this war, not just for the past and present, but the costs in the years to come."
"Forecasting is essentially time series modeling."
"It's a time series method so you only need data on the variable you're trying to forecast."
"You need to have a full distribution of uncertainty, not merely a point estimate for what's the most likely thing to happen."
"The point is that you can predict the tuition in a year from now maybe, but maybe not five years from now or ten years from now because there's inflation on top of inflation."
"The economic calendar enables traders to track economic indicators and political events that impact currency movements."
"Fundamental analysis: the use of economic and financial indicators to help value the future price or trend of a particular currency pair, market, or asset."
"One of the best approaches to get good predictions is that of combining many sub-predictions into one overall prediction."
"This project has presented a unified method for multivariate forecasting of cryptocurrency prices based on long-range transformer architectures."
"The yield curve is often a predictor of recessions."
"ARIMA, which stands for auto regressive integrated moving average, is a general class of statistical models for time series analysis and forecasting."
"The concepts we use here can be applied to any time series prediction."
"And if we do this and look at the output we can see that it's actually a much more realistic looking forecast."
"Time series forecasting is useful in many applications to be able to predict the future."