The Art Of Thinking Clearly Quotes
"We systematically overestimate the risk of being the victims of a plane crash, a car accident, or a murder. And we underestimate the risk of dying from less spectacular means, such as diabetes or stomach cancer."
"We do not confuse the company spokesperson, the ringmaster, the newscaster, the schmoozer, the verbiage vendor, or the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge."
"Never judge a decision purely by its result, especially when randomness and 'external factors' play a role."
"People respond to incentives by doing what is in their best interests."
"We create a picture of the world using the examples that most easily come to mind."
"The human brain seeks patterns and rules. In fact, it takes it one step further: If it finds no familiar patterns, it simply invents some."
"What lies inside this circle you understand intuitively; what lies outside, you may only partially comprehend."
"Incentives work better. These need not be monetary; anything is possible, from good grades to Nobel Prizes to special treatment in the afterlife."
"We attach too much likelihood to spectacular, flashy, or loud outcomes. Anything silent or invisible we downgrade in our minds."
"The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that we can influence something over which we have absolutely no sway."
"When it is exceeded, a surfeit of choices destroys quality of life."
"The more choice you have, the more unsure and therefore dissatisfied you are afterward."
"The more we like someone, the more inclined we are to buy from or help that person."
"We consider things to be more valuable the moment we own them."
"The simple fact of ownership makes us add zeros to the selling price."
"What would be more surprising is if they never came to be."
"Each individual group member would have rejected if no peer pressure had been involved."
"We respond to the expected magnitude of an event, but not to its likelihood."
"When we are deprived of an option, we suddenly deem it more attractive."
"A disregard of fundamental distribution levels."
"Investigate the most likely ailments before you start diagnosing exotic diseases."
"The more serious the threat and the more emotional the topic, the less reassuring a reduction in risk seems to us."
"You have a great need for other people to like and admire you."
"You have a tendency to be critical of yourself."
"You have a great deal of unused capacity, which you have not turned to your advantage."
"While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them."
"Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you."
"Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside."
"You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof."
"You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others."
"At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved."
"Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic."
"Security is one of your major goals in life."
"We are obsessed with having as many irons as possible in the fire, ruling nothing out, and being open to everything. However, this can easily destroy success."
"Adopt a life strategy similar to a corporate strategy: Write down what not to pursue in your life."
"Most doors are not worth entering, even when the handle seems to turn so effortlessly."
"Old technology has proven itself; it possesses an inherent logic even if we do not always understand it."
"In the past, I sympathized with so-called early adopters, the breed of people who cannot survive without the latest iPhone. Now I regard them as irrational and suffering from a kind of sickness: neomania."
"Amazingly, just the opposite is true for propaganda. If it strikes a chord with someone, this influence will only increase over time."
"The messenger fades from memory; the ugly accusations persevere."
"Alternative blindness: We systematically forget to compare an existing offer with the next-best alternative."
"Hire people who are better than you, otherwise you soon preside over a pack of underdogs."
"First and last impressions dominate, meaning the content sandwiched between has only a weak influence."
"Assume that most of the technology that has existed for the past fifty years will serve us for another half century."
"The illusion of attention: We are confident that we notice everything that takes place in front of us. But in reality, we often see only what we are focusing on."
"It is safe to assume that half of what you remember is wrong."
"Identifying with a group has been a survival strategy for hundreds of thousands of years. Not any longer."
"The fear of regret can overwhelm even the most hardheaded deal makers."
"Salient information has an undue influence on how you think and act. We tend to neglect hidden, slow-to-develop, discreet factors."
"Be careful if you win money or if a business gives you something for free. Chances are you will pay it back with interest out of sheer exuberance."
"The planning fallacy is particularly evident when people work together—in business, science, and politics."
"Our brains are not a central computer. Rather, it is a Swiss Army knife with many specialized tools."
"We tend to act conservatively, so as not to deviate from the crowd too much. No one is immune to this, not even supremely self-confident traders."
"Place a notepad by your bed...This will silence the cacophony of inner voices."
"Absence is much harder to detect than presence."
"What exists means a lot more than what is missing."
"Selecting and showcasing the most attractive features and hiding the rest."
"Speed demons drive more safely than so-called careful drivers."
"News is to the mind what sugar is to the body: appetizing, easy to digest—and highly destructive in the long run."
"Negative knowledge (what not to do) is much more potent than positive knowledge (what to do)."
"Eliminate all errors and better thinking will follow."
"To get around the omission bias, put yourself in the shoes of the harmed individual."
"Each spouse overestimated his or her role. The answers always added up to more than 100 percent."
"Thinking that what’s good for you is good for the wider civilization, and rationalizing foolish or evil conduct, is a terrible way to think."
"We quickly adjust to the latest gadgets and their ‘happiness effect’ fades away quickly."
"Subjective well-being seems to be heavily influenced by genetics. In other words, it’s chance!"
"Always tell us the bad news promptly. It is only the good news that can wait."
"The classic paper on the hedonic treadmill effect focuses not just on income, but on improvements of consumer electronic and gadgets."
"A payback period of ten years would be justified, but not thirty years."
"The ‘because’ justification works beautifully as long as the stakes are small."
"The problem of decision fatigue affects everything from the careers of CEOs to the prison sentences of felons."
"After the hard slog through the supermarket, consumers suffer decision fatigue."
"The best time is eight a.m. The CEO will be relaxed after a good night’s sleep."
"The one-line summary of the contagion bias: ‘Once in contact, always in contact.’"
"Don’t cross a river if it is (on average) four feet deep."
"The story with the day care center: a fine for picking up children late actually increased the number of late pickups."
"Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting can often lead to overly optimistic projections."
"It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law."
"You’ve got to have models across a wide array of disciplines."